Friday, 30 August 2019

Tapping-in to ignorance


The weather on Bank Holiday Monday was glorious.  With little planned for the day, the WhatsApp message from a friend proposing a cycle ride was a welcome suggestion.  Before you conjure the image of a wholesome activity to improve my fitness, allow me to disabuse you.  The bike was merely the chosen mode of transport to the pub of our choice for a splendid lunch in its beer garden.

It was a busy day and the popularity of the place meant that I was at the bar, waiting to be served, for quite some time.  Standing alone, I confess to eavesdropping on the conversation of three locals perched on stools.  Whilst I was tempted, I resisted contributing to their conversation for three primary reasons: 1) I hadn’t been invited, 2) I might have said something to offend, and 3) I’d probably have been punched.  I acknowledge the cowardice in failing to express my opinion; I’m not terribly brave when it comes to confrontation, and I fancied a quiet beer.

In this tumultuous political climate, it was unsurprising that they were talking about Brexit.  Given their chat, I think I can safely assume that they were squarely in the ‘Leave’ camp.  Their conversation revolved around the benefits to Britain that we’ll experience on departure from the EU.  A common tactic for those of us against leaving is to ask those in favour to list the benefits of Brexit and sit back smugly.  ‘Taking back control’ and ‘reclaiming our sovereignty’ are typically tossed back at that point, but the PM’s proroguing of parliament has pulled the proverbial rug from underneath that one.  On Monday, that abuse of our democracy was still a few days away.  However, I suspected that I was about to hear some somewhat different arguments from the stooges before me.  I was not wrong.

I learnt a few surprising ‘facts’, spoken with such a degree of conviction that, to the uninformed, they would appear indisputable.  Did you know, for instance, that the EU prevents the sale of British lamb in Britain?  Out of curiosity, I’ve checked the websites of Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Morrisons, ASDA, and Waitrose.  Guess what?  The Union flag was splattered across their lamb offerings.  I presume we’re still okay, unless I missed a Welsh independence vote and they haven’t updated the image.

I contemplated whether those foreign infiltrators, Aldi and Lidl, might be parochial in their provision of lamb.  Not a bit.  In fact, Lidl usefully pointed out the seasonality of its lamb availability stating, “[our lamb] is seasonally sourced from both the UK and New Zealand, with New Zealand lamb available January to June and British lamb available from July to December.”  In fairness, the woman bemoaning the restriction on British lamb sales also complained that we “had to have New Zealand lamb”.  I mused that a debate on the respective breeding seasons in the northern and southern hemispheres might be a little too deep for someone that has such a misaligned view of reality.

One of the chaps spoke about fishing, delighting that, on 1 November, British waters can be freely plundered by our fisherman.  Whilst unfettered access to British waters may follow a release from negotiated fishing quotas (which may not be the case under a ‘no-deal’ Brexit), British fishermen could find selling their hauls a little more difficult.  Today we can trade tariff-free with our European partners.  If, as our disingenuous Prime Minister would have you believe, things will be much better for Britain once we’re out from under the shackles of the EU, consider that any attempt to sell cod to the EU will attract an immediate 12% tariff.  Let us not forget that fish is wildly available beyond Britain’s coastal waters.  The Europeans will be able to get their tariff-free cod from a considerable number of other fisheries within the EEA. 

A parliamentary research briefing highlights that 70% of the UK’s £1.3 billion of fish exports go to the EU.  That’s £910 million of fish that’s going to cost European buyers £1.02 billion after 31 October 2019[1].  I suspect they’d rather buy from their European brethren than spend an additional £110 million on their fish and chips.  Notwithstanding, if they did take our fish, it’s perishable – it might honk a bit after the predicted delays brought about by greater customs controls.

The third sage was also willing to contribute his mind-numbingly ill-informed wisdom.  Clapping his hands together and rubbing them gleefully, he opined that we’ll all enjoy cheaper holidays.  He didn’t provide any substantiation for this claim, but one should note that on the day of voting in the EU referendum, a pound would buy you a little over €1.30.  When the result was announced on 24 June 2016, the pound lost 5.8% of its value to €1.22.  Oh, how I yearn for those days!  A pound at the current exchange rate will yield you just €1.0954[2]. 

If we allow only for exchange rate differences, a stein of beer in Munich’s Hofbrauhaus, a plate of Jamón ibérico from La Boqueria in Barcelona or a croissant from a Parisian Patisserie is going to cost us Brits nearly 19% more than it did before we voted.  One might argue that our little-Englander would rather not take his holidays in Europe, after all, he voted to leave.  But the damage to our exchange rate isn’t just limited to the Euro.  Since the referendum, the value of the pound has fallen more than 20% against 44 currencies and by between 10% and 20% against a further 69.  Perhaps I’m doing him a disservice.  Maybe he’s considering a trip to North Korea or Sudan.  Things must be cheap there; the pound is up over 80% against their currencies for the same period – I must mention that to Mrs GOM when we plan our next holiday.

Thankfully, I got served before I had to listen to more.  I felt for the barman who couldn’t escape their nonsense.  However, it did make me reflect on where they get their information.  Either, they make it up (which is not entirely implausible) or they are consuming falsehoods and regurgitating them as fact.  One must wonder where the stories come from and why they are so readily digested.  It serves to illustrate that our skewed media and dishonest politicians are feeding willing subjects with toxic stories that go unchallenged and are readily believed. 

The charlatans, racists and bigots that have led us to Brexit have been more sophisticated than those that wish to remain.  They’ve studied their Sun Tzu and Niccolò Machiavelli more closely; they’ve adopted modern technology to fuel the fears and appeal to the prejudices of the impressionable; and they’ve completely outwitted their opponents.  Those that have campaigned against them have failed to exploit new and traditional media channels – one might argue that’s because they’ve chosen to solicit votes lawfully.  How silly of them.

Our country is divided, and we are led by a Pied Piper of a Prime Minister who is willing to let us drown for his aggrandisement.  He, and others of his ilk, have used nefarious techniques to influence a sufficient proportion (27%) of the UK population to take all 65 million of us, lemming-like, to a cliff[3].  I fear, we’re about to step off, but when we do, I suspect a good proportion of those going over the edge will believe that there will be a giant inflatable filled with the dreamy hot air of our bloviating politicians that will cushion the fall.


Twitter: @GOMinTraining
Copyright © Craig Brown, 2019
30 August 2019


[1] Tariffs vary by species but, in the interests of simplicity, indulge me.  A simplified table of tariffs can be found here.
[2] Source: www.xe.com.  Exchange rates prior to 29 August are mid-market rates on the dates recorded.  Rates for 29 August 2019 taken at 13:22 UTC
[3] … and before you say it, I know lemmings don’t do that.

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